El Fondo Monetario Internacional reclama a España que empiece a seguir con atención la evolución de los precios inmobiliarios. Con datos de cierre de 2017, el organismo detecta las primeras señales de una “ligera sobrevaloración”, si bien destaca que todavía se está lejos de una nueva burbuja. “Aunque aún no hay evidencia clara de una desviación significativa, las autoridades necesitan estar vigilantes”, dice el Fondo. Por ese motivo, pide a los supervisores españoles que amplíen las herramientas de las que disponen para atajar los riesgos financieros y controlar la concesión de crédito. Estos instrumentos deben estar ya “listos para ser empleados”, concluye en una clara referencia a la autoridad para frenar burbujas que ultiman el Ministerio de Economía y el Banco de España.
La situación de la economía española dista ahora mucho de la efervescencia propia de una nueva burbuja especulativa de deuda. El encarecimiento de la vivienda no se ve acompañado de un incremento del crédito. El endeudamiento privado no sube y el saldo con el exterior es positivo. España se halla muy lejos de aquellos momentos en los que se pedía prestados al extranjero unos 100.000 millones de euros al año, fundamentalmente destinados a la compra de vivienda a precios disparados. No obstante, el valor de los inmuebles preocupa. En primer lugar, porque tan pronto como los precios repuntan con fuerza, el propietario se cree más rico y deja de ahorrar. En la actualidad la tasa de ahorro se sitúa en mínimos históricos tras haber tocado máximos durante lo peor de la crisis.
Conforme se vayan afianzando estos escenarios alcistas, se corre el peligro de que la revalorización pueda conducir a una confianza excesiva en el valor del ladrillo y, por tanto, a una espiral de relajación en la concesión del crédito y en los criterios para construir. “Nunca se debe infravalorar la velocidad con la que toman impulso estos procesos”, explica un alto cargo de la Administración.
De ahí que el Fondo Monetario Internacional realice en su informe anual sobre España un análisis sobre el sector inmobiliario nacional. Bajo el título de La evolución del mercado de la vivienda, ¿un motivo ya para la preocupación?, los economistas del organismo elaboran dos estimaciones distintas para intentar medir desviaciones de los precios.
En una de ellas, el Fondo hace cálculos que incluyen la trayectoria de los ingresos per cápita, de la población en edad de trabajar, de los tipos de interés, de la Bolsa, de los costes de la construcción o de la relación entre el precio de la vivienda y los ingresos de los hogares. En definitiva, trata de medir si la propiedad es asequible y si su valor es coherente con la marcha de la economía. Con este modelo, el FMI sostiene que se observa una “ligera sobrevaloración en el cuarto trimestre de 2017”. No obstante, también señala que estos resultados deben tomarse con precaución dadas las complejidades de los cálculos.
ENGLISH VERSION
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is asking Spain to monitor the price of real estate following a rebound of the property market after years of crisis. After analyzing late 2017 statistics, the global agency has detected early signs of “a slight overvaluation,” although it stressed that there is still nothing like a new housing bubble in Spain.
“Even though there is no clear evidence so far of a generalized house price overvaluation, it is critical that the Bank of Spain has a comprehensive toolkit at its disposal so that it can act promptly should misalignments emerge,” says the IMF in its annual report on Spain.
“House prices have increased in recent years, although from a low level and without signs of a construction boom. While there is no clear evidence of a significant price misalignment yet, the authorities need to be vigilant. The set of macroprudential tools should be expanded to deal with potential financial stability risks,” write the analysts in a side box to the report titled “Developments in the Housing Market: Already a Cause of Concern?”
The IMF finds that house prices increased by around 15% between 2014 and 2017, but that sales are being driven by existing housing stock rather than new housing. Another change from pre-crisis days is that the home ownership rate has dropped from 80% to 77% as people increasingly turn to the rental market.
The Spanish economy is showing nothing like the kind of effervescence that drove the speculative debt bubbleprior to 2008. Rising home prices are not being matched by a rise in credit flows. Private debt levels are not growing and the exterior balance is positive. Gone are the days when Spain was borrowing around €100 billion a year, fundamentally to fund the purchase of overvalued homes.
But analysts are nevertheless concerned about the new upward trend of housing prices, which could lead to excessive trust and a relaxation of loan application requirements and building criteria. Additionally, household savings levels are at historic lows as homeowners believe themselves to be wealthier.
“One should never underestimate the speed at which these processes gain traction,” said a high-ranking government official.
The IMF report notes that “banks are highly exposed to real estate sector developments, and therefore the macroprudential toolkit should be expanded to deal with risks associated with that exposure.”
This means that Spanish supervisors should be granted new powers to limit mortgage approvals based on the value of the home, the borrower’s income or the payment deadlines. The Socialist (PSOE) administration of Pedro Sánchez is currently working on a decree to give the Bank of Spain these powers.
The IMF has been telling Spain for years to create an agency to monitor systemic risks, or in other words, to assess financial hazards in order to prevent imbalances and bubbles. And now that the property market is picking up speed again, there is an added sense of urgency.
The previous Popular Party (PP) administration delayed the creation of this oversight body, but Economy Minister Nadia Calviño has a blueprint on her desk for an agency that would bring together the Bank of Spain, the national securities watchdog CNMV and the Economy Ministry. Under the proposed terms, the Bank of Spain would gain the power to rein in the concession of loans and tighten conditions for mortgage approvals.
“Even though there is no clear evidence so far of a generalized house price overvaluation, it is critical that the Bank of Spain has a comprehensive toolkit at its disposal so that it can act promptly should misalignments emerge,” says the IMF in its annual report on Spain.
“House prices have increased in recent years, although from a low level and without signs of a construction boom. While there is no clear evidence of a significant price misalignment yet, the authorities need to be vigilant. The set of macroprudential tools should be expanded to deal with potential financial stability risks,” write the analysts in a side box to the report titled “Developments in the Housing Market: Already a Cause of Concern?”
The IMF finds that house prices increased by around 15% between 2014 and 2017, but that sales are being driven by existing housing stock rather than new housing. Another change from pre-crisis days is that the home ownership rate has dropped from 80% to 77% as people increasingly turn to the rental market.
The Spanish economy is showing nothing like the kind of effervescence that drove the speculative debt bubbleprior to 2008. Rising home prices are not being matched by a rise in credit flows. Private debt levels are not growing and the exterior balance is positive. Gone are the days when Spain was borrowing around €100 billion a year, fundamentally to fund the purchase of overvalued homes.
But analysts are nevertheless concerned about the new upward trend of housing prices, which could lead to excessive trust and a relaxation of loan application requirements and building criteria. Additionally, household savings levels are at historic lows as homeowners believe themselves to be wealthier.
“One should never underestimate the speed at which these processes gain traction,” said a high-ranking government official.
The IMF report notes that “banks are highly exposed to real estate sector developments, and therefore the macroprudential toolkit should be expanded to deal with risks associated with that exposure.”
This means that Spanish supervisors should be granted new powers to limit mortgage approvals based on the value of the home, the borrower’s income or the payment deadlines. The Socialist (PSOE) administration of Pedro Sánchez is currently working on a decree to give the Bank of Spain these powers.
The IMF has been telling Spain for years to create an agency to monitor systemic risks, or in other words, to assess financial hazards in order to prevent imbalances and bubbles. And now that the property market is picking up speed again, there is an added sense of urgency.
The previous Popular Party (PP) administration delayed the creation of this oversight body, but Economy Minister Nadia Calviño has a blueprint on her desk for an agency that would bring together the Bank of Spain, the national securities watchdog CNMV and the Economy Ministry. Under the proposed terms, the Bank of Spain would gain the power to rein in the concession of loans and tighten conditions for mortgage approvals.
Fuente: El País
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